Features
The expiration date on the sinking paradise draws ever so closer
The Maldives, a paradise of milky white sandy beaches and crystal-clear turquoise lagoons is a popular bucket list destination.
The Maldives, a paradise of milky white sandy beaches and crystal-clear turquoise lagoons is a popular bucket list destination. Unfortunately, the promise of overwater villas, colourful reefs, and diverse marine life is marred by an expiry date. The Maldives, often seen on the global stage pleading its case on becoming uninhabitable by 2050 and completely submerged under the sea by 2100, is a story reported often. However, with the severe impacts of climate change on the small island nation, the country's economy and people's livelihoods have a shorter expiration date.
The Maldivian economy, which heavily relies on Tourism, accounts for nearly 30 per cent of the GDP and 60 per cent of the nation’s foreign currency earnings. The lack of diversification of the country’s economy burdens the tourism industry excessively. As a result, small changes and impacts to the tourism industry have severe implications and ripples throughout the economy.
A stark example is the recent COVID-19 pandemic that left the country’s economy on life support. Former Environment, Climate Change and Technology Minister Aminath Shauna said, “The Covid-19 pandemic left over 30,000 people in the tourism sector unemployed. Aside from people employed by resorts, many people who both directly and indirectly benefit from tourism industry had a difficult time during the pandemic. The economy of the country came to a halt; we really had no money.” This is not just an economic crisis but a human one, with livelihoods and futures at stake.
As we come to understand the vulnerability of the Maldivian economy to variables in the tourism sector, we must recognise the fragility of the ‘perfect weather conditions’, ‘healthy reefs’, and ‘diverse marine life’, which are becoming less and less guaranteed on tourist visits to the Maldives. One of the longest-serving marine biologists and environmental consultants in the Maldives, Hussein Zahir, says, “Alarms have been sounding since 1998. The marine ecosystems we have in the Maldives are extremely fragile. The heatwave in 98’ left over 70 per cent of the corals bleached.” The coral reefs provide critical coastal protection and are vital for economic prosperity. Numerous efforts have been undertaken to help the regrowth of reefs. Still, it is a slow and laborious process, taking 7 to 10 years to observe just over five to 7 centimetres of coral growth.
Looking at the carbon footprint of Maldives, the greenhouse emissions are low enough to be considered negligible in its contributions to climate change. Nevertheless, the impacts of climate change do not differentiate between contributors and bystanders in its impacts. Maldives had faced two significant coral bleaching events in 1998 and 2016 and smaller yet frequent heat waves in 2017, 2020, 2022 and 2023. Zahir says, “The impacts of the global coral bleaching event that we are facing now will only become visible later in the year.”
Yasir Ibrahim, a professional diver and owner of a diving agency for the past two decades, said, “The heatwave we faced this year is nothing like before. I observed days in January and February this year when temperatures closed in at 42 degrees, and the surface temperature of seas in the capital area exceeded 32 degrees.” Maldives, lying on the equator, has a steady temperature throughout the year at 28 degrees. Yasir says the corals and marine life are susceptible to changes in temperature, and an increase in four degrees is bound to have severe impacts, “probably more severe than we have ever seen before and will result in the collapse of years of work in reef recovery”.
The challenges to the tourism industry aren’t limited to temperature increases that damage the coral reefs and marine life. Severe and abnormal weather conditions have a substantial impact on the tourism industry. The Maldives observes two main seasons throughout the year: the ‘Iruvai’ or northeast monsoon, the dry season with calm winds and seas, lasting from January to March and the ‘Hulhangu’ or southwest monsoon with stronger winds, waves, and heavy rains lasting from May to November.
The northeast monsoon period, often associated with the ‘peak’ tourism period, sees the largest number of tourist arrivals and the highest occupancy rates in resorts and guesthouses. This is related to expectations of good diving and snorkelling conditions, with fewer rainy days, high visibility, and calm seas. However, this year, the story has been very different, and it has even been disappointing for tourists who visited early in January and February. Yasir said, “You would expect to have nice dives with good visibility and calm seas from January to March, but the first two months have been nothing but strong winds and waves, resulting in bad visibility and poor diving conditions”.
Zahir says, “The impacts on the Maldivian environment due to climate change are causing severe and irreversible damage, and these impacts are sure to trickle down to the economy with severe implications in the long term”. With the heavy reliance on the tourism sector by the Maldivian economy, the loss of coral reefs and poor weather conditions will impact the reputation of the Maldives in its marketed reputation as ‘Paradise on Earth’. Yasir says, “We have tourists coming to the Maldives and paying over 300 dollars per dive and over 1000 dollars to complete basic dive courses”. Yasir claims it is a grave mistake to expect the same number of tourists as the Maldives currently accommodate when our reefs have nothing to offer.
Former minister Shauna says that while running projects to mitigate and adapt to climate change and its impacts is crucial, the necessary funding for these projects is stuck behind ‘bureaucracy’. “It is difficult for small and developing countries like the Maldives to access these funds from international bodies, which require organisations working with backing from scientific studies and reports, which we don’t have.”
Zahir, who has worked as a consultant with many governmental agencies, says, “While we need more contributions from the government towards science-based publications and to record data, the funding is nothing more than peanuts”. The privilege to conduct such investigations and studies is often only available to developed nations with deep pockets. “Often environmental consultants, policymakers and advocates are faced with the backfoot of those in power in the face of development projects”.
While international funding is vital to ensure the longevity and sustainability of the fragile environment in the Maldives, better internal management of resources and enforcement of environmental policies and laws are just as critical. Zahir says, “Until we do more than just take immediate action to mitigate the damage from every heatwave and bleaching event and build a culture of routine maintenance and adaptation strategies, the challenge ahead will be difficult”.
Interview Contact Details
Aminath Shauna (Former Minister for Environment, Climate Change, and Technology) – (+960) 9992834
Hussein Zahir (Marine Biologist and Environmental Consultant) – (+960) 9902143
Yaasir Ibrahim (Co-owner of Divers Lodge and Environment Activist) – (+960) 7782232