Opinions
‘Pro-Maldives’ Policy – A Trojan Horse in Disguise for a ‘Pro-China’ Policy
The Maldives braces for a severe change in the political landscape as incumbent president Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldives Democratic Party (MDP) conceded defeat to the opposition…
The Maldives braces for a severe change in the political landscape as incumbent president Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldives Democratic Party (MDP) conceded defeat to the opposition candidate from the Peoples National Congress (PNC) in coalition with the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), Dr Mohamed Muizzu on the runoff round of the election held on September 30.
The opposition campaign strategy centred around an ‘India Out’ campaign, calling for the removal of Indian military personnel from Maldivian soil, played a critical role in the results of the election. While many argue that the recent Maldivian presidential election was ‘not a referendum on India or China’, recent comments by President-elect Muizzu stand contrary to the claim. Muizzu has stated that in his meeting with the Indian Ambassador, he has requested for the swift removal of Indian troops from Maldives. In his first interview with international media, Al Jazeera, Muizzu said that he would follow a ‘Pro-Maldives policy’, and the current threat to Maldivian sovereignty by having Indian troops on Maldivian soil needs to be resolved.
While the opposition called for removing Indian troops, the agreement with New Delhi to bring the Indian-leased Dornier aircraft and the Indian forces to maintain and operate the aircraft was renewed during President Yaamen's tenure. Relations with New Delhi and Male’ deteriorated towards the end of Yaamen’s term as New Delhi, among other states, called for transparency and freedom of the courts. Yaamen announced a state of emergency to keep opposition political leaders detained and overturn a Supreme Court ruling. At the end of his term, Yaamen attempted to cancel the agreement for the leased aircraft with New Delhi, but it was renewed as President Solih came to power in 2018. The ‘India Out’ campaign initiated by former president Yaamen Abdul Gayoom, staking his comeback to the political sphere, was cut short for him after being sentenced to 11 years on corruption charges. Still, his replacement candidate, Muizzu, successfully rode the waves of the ‘India Out’ campaign to prevail in the recent election.
The ties Male’ holds today with Beijing peaked during Yaamen’s term in presidency between 2013 and 2018. He embraced the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which many policymakers and politicians alike, including former President Mohamed Nasheed, have raised concerns about Beijing, leveraging ‘debt traps’ to attain strategic assets to create a ‘string of pearls’. Yaameen, during his term, attempted to pass a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Beijing hastily but without success in parliament. In contrast, President Solih, during his presidency, committed to an ‘India First’ foreign policy, complimenting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Neighborhood First’ Policy. Solih turned to New Delhi to finance major government projects such as the Greater Male’ Connectivity Project, while the FTA with Beijing halted.
As Muizzu takes office on November 17, the question remains whether Maldives will shift towards a ‘Pro-China’ policy rather than an ‘India First’ policy within constraints. By removing Indian military troops from Maldivian soil, the pressing issue at hand may be solved. However, New Delhi has been one of the main sources of foreign grants, loans, and investments to stimulate the Maldivian economy after the COVID-19 pandemic. Mega projects like the Greater Male’ Connectivity Project, awarded to Indian companies through Indian credit lines, may not be possible following the termination of a major defence agreement between Male’ and New Delhi. Given the circumstances, the reductionist viewpoint concludes that Muizzu turns to Beijing to support megaprojects and secure the necessary financial grants and loans to support his government. Muizzu claims to seek more bilateral relationships between nations in establishing a ‘Pro-Maldives’ policy. With Muizzu swearing into office, the FTA between Beijing and Male’ that had come to a halt can be expected to be fast-tracked and signed early during Muizzu’s presidency.
Adding to the already deteriorating relationship with New Delhi, Muizzu is on the path to breaking one of the longest-standing traditions held by Maldivian presidents in making their first foreign trip after inauguration to New Delhi. Muizzu has reaffirmed maintaining an ‘India First’ policy within boundaries and has invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to his inauguration. Nonetheless, many within the top ranks of PPM-PNC leadership have confirmed that Muizzu’s first foreign trip after his inauguration will be to Saudi Arabia. While the significance of this trip may be undervalued by many, the tradition of every president of Maldive's first foreign trip to India has been held for decades. Even during President Yaamen’s tenure, he made his first foreign trip to New Delhi.
With Muizzu swearing-in for office on November 17, the Maldives will likely tilt towards Beijing once again. With the removal of Indian foreign troops and the finalisation of the FTA with Beijing, Male’ is expected to hold closer relations with Beijing as a development partner. However, a critical distinction to note is that it is unlikely for a Maldivian president to isolate themselves from New Delhi. New Delhi has remained one of Male’s closest and most influential neighbours, swooping in with aid during the 1988 attempted Coup, the 2004 Tsunami, the 2014 water crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and more. Finally, In addition to New Delhi and Beijing’s interest in the Maldives, Canberra and Washington have their interests in maintaining close relations with Male’ as they set up embassies in the Maldives.
Thus, to make a definitive conclusion on the shifts in the political landscape is difficult, with the complex relationship between New Delhi and Beijing and the introduction of large and developed economies from the West coupled with the local dynamics. Nevertheless, the decision taken by President-elect Muizzu in how he implements a ‘Pro-Maldives’ policy will play a pivotal role in the political future of the country.